Vol, Performance, MBS Demand and A Look at the CCM / Two Harbors Merger
In this week’s Convexity Pulse, Kirill Krylov discusses how improving technicals, declining volatility, and strong performance in production coupons are shifting the return profile in MBS from spread compression toward carry. He highlights the evolving demand landscape, with banks moderating as valuations tighten while asset managers and foreign investors begin to re-engage. The episode also explores duration extension dynamics across the index and why securitized sectors are driving changes beneath the surface. Finally, Kirill examines recent servicing developments and explains why large portfolio transfers may have a more gradual and nuanced impact on prepayment behavior than headline risk might suggest.
